As a friend of NBT, you know we've been watching and waiting for the 4G Broadband Mobility revolution. Now that it's finally upon us, I don't want ANYONE to be left behind when this sector -- and the best stocks within it...
How to Play the 4G Broadband Mobility Revolution
For long suffering VelaTel Global Communications (VELA) shareholders, the following words harken back to an era long ago, from the September bottom shares are up 550% and is our BEST performing stock in 4th quarter...wow.
I know many of you ADDED to your positions in the sell-off in early Fall caused by the sale of stock by employees who had been reimbursed for expenses via stock they immediately dumped…which of course tanked the stock.
Catalyst #1 for the stock: NO MORE shares being paid to employees, what a concept!
Catalyst #2 for the stock: The acquisition of China Motion Inc. from its publicly traded (HK Exchange) parent at an extremely advantageous price. I met with CEO George Alvarez in LA last week to discuss why the acquisition is so important and how they planned on paying the $5.5 million price is cash.
I’ll post a full report next week, but the short version is this:
1) China Motion’s MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator) business and longtime relationship with China Mobile and China Telecom is the PERFECT fit and structure for building out the CASC and NGSN 4G TD-LTE networks. China Motion sells SIM chips with numbers that work in BOTH Hong Kong and China...and just Hong Kong and China. For the CASC/NGSN projects that means VELA can use the MVNO structure which is OTT (over the top) of China Mobile and China Telecom’s 4G-LTE network to immediately have a 4G network up and running in China with very little CAPEX investment.
2) The China Motion MVNO network will do $18-$20 million in revenue next year with organic growth, that is BEFORE the CASC and NGSN network revenues are added to the revenue ledger. Add in VELA operations in Peru and Croatia/Montenegro plus a >$15 million in purchase orders for Cell Tower fuel cell backup systems from their subsidiary VTech...and VELA is a $40-$50M revenue operation with REAL EBITDA cash flow
3) How does VELA pay for the acquisition? Mum is the word from Mr. Alvarez...but clearly they would NOT have entered into such an acquisition (which is already approved by the board of the seller) WITHOUT a very clear cut plan to pay for it.
4) The SINO Crossing fiber deal in China NOW looks like it will be a big winner as well. The network would serve as the necessary data “back haul” network for China Motion/CASC/NGSN. The back haul revenues for SINO Crossing would be at least 25% of the total network revenue for China Motion/CASC/NGSN.
5) China Motion has a very big Shanghai MVNO network also. One can assume VELA will go after that business as well.
6) As mentioned, the VTECH fuel cell business looks to break out any day. With partner ZTE, the VTEC fuel cell design has been approved by the Chinese government AND China Mobile/China Telecom; the Chinese Ministry MIIT has been quoted in the state news agencies as “mandating” long life power back-up for the nation’s 1 million+ cell towers. We expect the first big >$10M purchase agreement any day.
With Clearwire selling today to Sprint at a total value of nearly $5 billion...remember Clearwire is a 4G TD-LTE data network serving over one million customers in the US and it provides wholesale mobile data bandwidth to Sprint as well...it serves to remind investors that VELA will soon be a 100k subscriber 4G TD-LTE network that owns 1.8 and 2.5GHz spectrum too.
One tenth of $5 billion IS a $500 million value for the network and spectrum...and we expect the China MVNO network to rapidly grow to 200-500k subscribers just within the CASC/NGSN network operations.
With 95 million shares fully diluted—remember VELA can pay off its convertible notes with CASH—VELA NOW looks like a $10 MILLION market company on its way to $100 million PURELY at a multiple of its 2013 revenues.
In fact at 5X its $40 million revenues (NBT estimate) it’s a $200 million market value...or another 20X from here.
NBT no longer is under contract with VELA for sponsored research...but we still own >2 million shares and we WILL seek to re-instate our sponsored research program with VELA in 2013.
Long suffering shareholders—hang on tight to your shares and ADD on pull backs here...it looks like the REAL Velatel story—about 2 years LATE—is starting to emerge.
PS...If you missed our “Perfect Christmas Gift For The Person Who DOES Have Everything” check it out right now.
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Founder and Editor-in-Chief for NBTEquitiesResearch.com. Contributor and Anchor for the Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network 2000-2013. Chairman & CEO of NBT Group, Inc., a boutique private capital investment bank and investor relations organization.
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