BarFresh Food Group, Inc. ( OTCQB : BRFH ) ("BarFresh Food Group," "BarFresh" or the "Company"), our pure play manufacturer and distributor of unique ready to blend single serving smoothies and blended beverages, announced it has entered into a comprehensive set of agreements with one of the largest QSR (quick service restaurant) chains in the country with >6000 locations.
As usual, the QSR restaurant chain CAN’T be identified today; it’s a matter of competitive advantage for their new client.
BUT…if you do your own research on North American QSRs and fast food restaurant chains with >6000 locations who do NOT currently have a smoothie program (i.e., ex-McDonalds and Burger King) the members of THAT club is a VERY short list. The new deal is NOT with Subway; they have 36,000 North American QSR stores without smoothies (but BarFresh’s affiliate Down Under DOES have a deal with them in Australia/New Zealand).
Let’s Do the Math of how BRFH Gets to $3 A Share Valuation on 10k Locations
If you add up the total locations of the announced deals closed in 2012…it’s roughly 10,000 locations. CEO Riccardo Delle Coste tells NBT they are hard at work on MORE giant deals like the 6000 unit deal announced last week. We expect many of the national QSR chains that are FAR BEHIND the smoothie curve will adopt the BarFresh smoothie solution because of the extreme cost benefit of their smoothie program and time to market vs. the do-it-yourself from scratch option.
Here’s how we get to $3 a share on 10,000 locations (current price-per-share 50 cents).
We figure the blended AVERAGE 7 day weekly sales (high traffic and low traffic locations) for smoothies and other BarFresh blended beverages (they do shakes/frappes too) is 30 a day or rounded down to 200 a week.
Wholesale cost of the BarFresh Smoo single serving smoothie/milkshake/frappe packages is .80-$1.50 so we will round to $1.
200 X $1 is $200 a week per location. $200 X 52 weeks is $10,400 annual sales per store (and we think that is VERY low estimate, but we are talking average for a wide range of stores).
$10,200 x 10,000 locations is $104 million in annual sales for BarFresh. Bear in mind we expect the company to add 25,000 more QSR locations and DO expect to see Subway come on board at some time—low calorie smoothies is PERFECT match with their brand.
Valuation Assumptions
Green Mountain Roasters, the pioneer in single serving premium coffee, was valued in its fast growth stage at 5 times sales…it’s around two times sales now. It’s a national distributor of a single serving beverage platform so it’s a good “comparable” equity.
With 50 million shares outstanding (and assuming they close at $2M additional financing adding 5M shares to float) let’s use 60 million share fully diluted (for option grants, etc.)
2x$100M 2014 sales is $200M valuation/60M shares gets us to >$3 a share at $200 a week in total BRSH wholesale sales per unit.
Note: IF we are DEAD wrong and sales are only $100 a week per unit, our $100M revenue number by end of 2014 is STILL on target by BRFH adding another 10k units…which is extremely likely. IF sales are more like $500 per week per store—we get to >$6 per share on 10k stores.
The Key Is National Distribution!
The national QSR restaurant food distributors (Sysco, US Food Products) will be carrying the full line of BarFresh products to service the national QSR accounts announced by BRFH. THEIR salespeople will open additional smoothie operations in many of the 160,000 QSR stores they call on every week within America. In total, these QSRs are selling $110 billion of food every year with 22-25% food costs.
All this distribution excludes HOME sales from grocery stores…which I think will be bigger than wholesale by 3-5X.
The New Sales and Development Agreement
The new agreements call for the exclusive development of a new drink platform for approximately 6,000 locations nationwide. Details of the agreements include a fully customized smoothie drink line utilizing the BarFresh patent pending proprietary packaging system of ready to blend ingredient packs. The new product line will consist of unique flavors and ingredients customized specifically for this customer.
The agreements also call for product and operations development, which will occur over the next several months including the procurement for product being made available and sold in certain initial markets, commencing as early as three to nine months, with the anticipation of a nationwide rollout shortly thereafter, which will be predicated on timing and availability of equipment.
BarFresh CEO, Riccardo Delle Coste, said, "This is the most significant development agreement for our Company to date. These agreements dramatically change the landscape of our business. This chain has approximately 6,000 locations here in the U.S. alone and when compared to other similar sized QSR customers, who have been quoted as selling hundreds of blended drinks per store per week, this contract for BarFresh represents a potentially significant multi-million dollar deal for us."
"This is also a testament to the strength and flexibility of our proprietary ready to blend delivery system, as we are able to change and adapt different flavors and ingredient combinations for any of our large customers. However, we are contractually obligated to maintain confidentiality and protect the disclosure of our large QSR customer names in an effort to provide them with the utmost competitive advantage."
Mr. Delle Coste added, "These recent agreements solidify the progress we're making with large multinational QSR's. We're bringing great tasting nutritional beverage products to the fast casual restaurant space that has never been previously made available to their customers. In the past, bringing so many different ingredients together has been either very expensive and/or highly labor intensive, so our system is very unique and affordable for large QSRs."
"There's a big shift taking place in the multi-billion dollar QSR space, whereby we believe consumers are seeking healthier drink alternatives than what they've historically had available to them. Consumers are much more health conscious, so restaurants are looking for ways to provide products that taste good, and are also good for them. This growing trend is seen in parents migrating away from unhealthy food and beverages for their children. Obviously this opens up a tremendous opportunity for us, and that is why we're extremely excited about the future outlook for our Company and shareholders."
About BarFresh Food Group, Inc.
BarFresh Food Group, Inc. (BRFH) is a manufacturer and distributor of ready to blend beverages. The Company utilizes a proprietary patent pending system, using controlled pre-packaged portions, to deliver a freshly made smoothie that's quick, cost efficient and with no waste. BarFresh Food Group, Inc. utilizes contract manufacturing facilities to complete the manufacturing of its "sealed pack of ingredients for an individual smoothie."
The Company sells ready to blend all natural beverages primarily to restaurant chains in the fast food and fast casual dining sector. In the future it intends to target other segments of the food service industry as well as the retail consumer market, including grocery stores and other retail outlets.
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Founder and Editor-in-Chief for NBTEquitiesResearch.com. Contributor and Anchor for the Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network 2000-2013. Chairman & CEO of NBT Group, Inc., a boutique private capital investment bank and investor relations organization.
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